Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

827
FXUS62 KTAE 141856
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
256 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

West and southwesterly winds prevail through the period as upper
level ridging develops over the southeast US. This will continue the
increasing trends in temperatures and for tomorrow expect highs to
jump into the low 90s. Only weather concerns could be brief patchy
fog in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Near record heat starting Friday into early next week with a slight
chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly north of I-10 this weekend.

A hot and humid air mass will overspread the region during this time
frame as ridging builds aloft and dew points rise well into the 60s
to around 70F. Some patchy fog is also possible each morning through
the weekend. With highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s, some daily
record highs may be in jeopardy. For example, the record high at TLH
on Friday 5/16 is 95F set in 1962; if our fcst high of 95 verifies,
that would tie the daily record high. Stay tuned!

The West-Southwest 850 hPa flow will aid in turbulent mixing each
afternoon, which will tend to cap dew points at 70F away from the
coast. This would result in heat indices maxing out 95-100F most
days, well below advisory levels for heat.

As the ridge flattens a bit this weekend in response to shortwave
energy, along with higher PWAT, a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm mainly north of I-10 on Saturday or Sunday. Overall
chances are fairly low, with ensembles showing only a 20% chance of
measurable precipitation on Saturday, increasing to 40% on Sunday,
highest west of the Flint River into SE AL.

A high risk of rip currents may linger into Friday for the West-
facing Gulf County beaches, otherwise a moderate risk of rip
currents is outlooked for the Gulf beaches through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period with
westerly winds. Some brief periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are possible
at all terminals tonight from 09-13z but then VFR conditions will
prevail again through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

High pressure centered southeast of the waters will continue a
prolonged period of southwest flow, which will tend to be maximized
during the daytime hours near the coast due to the seabreeze. Seas
generally around 2 to 3 feet just offshore and especially near the
inlets during the outgoing tide. Dry weather is also expected over
the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Mainly dry weather is expected over the next several days with heat
and humidity building through Friday. The main fire weather concerns
will be high dispersions mainly north of I-10 through Friday
afternoon. Some enhancement to the southwest winds is expected for
both afternoons mainly to the south of I-10 associated with the
afternoon seabreezes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

The Choctawhatchee River will crest in action stage over the next
couple of days near Caryville while Bruce-Ebro crests in action
stage late this weekend into early next week. With no consequential
precipitation forecast over the next week, there are no flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   82  72  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        88  67  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        89  68  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      90  68  94  68 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    86  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  72  82  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...LF