Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

668
FXUS62 KTAE 042006
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
406 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...HAPPY 250TH BIRTHDAY AMERICA...
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances
  are expected throughout this weekend and into next week, but
  chances remain at or below seasonal normals. When Thunder Roars,
  Go Indoors!

- Above average temperatures expected throughout this weekend.
  Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-conditioned places,
  wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and
  illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Dry air is gradually mixing out of the region as moist southerly
flow is reestablished and moisture advection pushes inland off the
Gulf. A couple showers have popped up throughout the day, perhaps
lower in coverage than anticipated as this mid-level dry air has
stuck around longer than expected. Timing will be a limiting
factor today as dry air moistens throughout this afternoon and
evening. Should there be just enough moisture in the column, with
the aid of fleeting diurnal instability, we may see a couple
showers late in the afternoon into the early evening. Any showers
that do pop up are not expected to last long beyond sunset.

PWATs look to increase through midweek as a shortwave moves across
the Great Lakes region enhancing moisture transport northward. The
time of greatest influence from this shortwave will be Sunday into
Monday when the surface feature associated with the shortwave makes
its closest approach. That being across northern Georgia and
northern Alabama. Instability will be greatest across our northwest
counties, however the low-level wind field looks to be rather weak.
Thus, we should see an increase in pop-up showers and storms,
especially across southeast AL, decreasing in coverage as one heads
towards the FL Big Bend, with low end chances to see severe weather.

After Monday, the surface feature gets hung up to our north as the
shortwave lifts off to the northeast. This will keep moisture in
place across the region, as high pressure looks to reestablish
itself. This will lead to regular afternoon summertime pop-up
showers and storms throughout the work week. With the increase in
moisture there is the potential to see heat advisories as the heat
index increases towards 108+ degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Light winds will shift southwesterly this afternoon as the sea
breeze moves inland for the ECP and TLH terminals. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon as noted in PROB30
groups for all terminals, but the best chances look to be at ECP
and TLH. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals with
possible MVFR cigs if a thunderstorm moves directly overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A summertime pattern is expected throughout this weekend with light
to gentle breezes becoming more southwesterly heading into next
week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
during the overnight and morning hours, with seas remaining tranquil
around 1 to 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Low to moderate fire weather concerns continue through the next day
or two. Afternoon humidities will fall to around 35 to 45 percent
today but slowly increase and climb to around 50% during the
upcoming week. Rain chances increase slightly this weekend, but only
isolated to scattered coverage is expected.
Overall, while the pattern will be summerlike, rain chances will
likely be around or just below normal through the next 5 days.
Winds will be light through the period but localized increases
across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons.
Dispersions will be fair to good for the area through the next
several days, but some higher dispersions can be expected next week
with greater mixing and a slight increase in transport winds out of
the south and southwest. Main concerns outside fire weather will be
increasing heat indices as they climb to around 108 this upcoming
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A typical summertime pattern will set up this week. Widespread
rainfall amounts of up to an inch are forecast with localized higher
amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. No flooding is
expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  95  76  93 /   0  40  20  50
Panama City   80  91  80  91 /   0  10  40  40
Dothan        76  95  74  93 /  20  30  10  40
Albany        77  96  75  94 /  10  40  30  30
Valdosta      76  96  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
Cross City    77  94  76  93 /  20  40  30  30
Apalachicola  80  90  80  89 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver